DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Azure Rayloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 29 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 27 games
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 22 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 21 game
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 20 games
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 19 games
Azure Ray
Clockwerk
Fantasy · 22 games
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 14 games
Tuskoften banned
Fantasy · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Fantasy · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 12 games
Svenoften banned
lou · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
380 picks · 504 bans
Clockwerk
375 picks · 349 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 471 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 604 bans
Luna
302 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
273 picks · 140 bans
Batrider
255 picks · 257 bans
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 404 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength63% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
Tundra Esports 55%Azure Ray 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNightfall
Ursalou
Visage33
Marsniu
PuckLorenof
ClinkzpLAnet
EnchantressWhitemon
BatriderFantasy
TuskSaksa
Game 2prediction missed8:49
Tundra Esports 53%Azure Ray 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNightfall
Anti-Magelou
MorphlingLorenof
Timbersawniu
Bristleback33
MuertapLAnet
PugnaWhitemon
Dark WillowFantasy
TuskSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2