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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 43 games
79%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 35 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 28 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 24 games
88%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 22 games
82%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 21 game
52%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 20 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 18 games
67%

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
68%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
74%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 17 games
65%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 204 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
443 picks · 796 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 595 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 632 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
414 picks · 173 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
380 picks · 727 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 604 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
363 picks · 276 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:26
Tundra Esports 46%BETBOOM TEAM 54%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 51:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPure~
49% · 230 games52% · 70 games
Phantom LancerNightfall
Phantom Lancer
Zeus
ZeusTopson
40% · 68 games52% · 181 game
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierTobi
49% · 265 games48% · 245 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Rubick
Rubick9Class
51% · 311 games49% · 301 game
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
52% · 122 games55% · 199 games
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed5:40
Tundra Esports 50%BETBOOM TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPure~
49% · 245 games51% · 133 games
WeaverNightfall
Weaver
Pugna
PugnaTopson
49% · 190 games55% · 197 games
KunkkaMieRo
Kunkka
Brewmaster
BrewmasterTobi
44% · 171 game47% · 335 games
PangoliergpK~
Pangolier
Batrider
Batrider9Class
47% · 319 games53% · 196 games
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
52% · 148 games53% · 212 games
LionSave-
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 52%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2