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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 40 games
60%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 37 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 27 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
59%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
78%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 25 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 24 games
63%

BETBOOM TEAM

Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 27 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 23 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 22 games
55%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
MieRo · 17 games
59%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 373 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
396 picks · 448 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
388 picks · 821 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 867 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
368 picks · 766 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 508 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 506 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
335 picks · 251 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
Tundra Esports 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPure~
49% · 111 games42% · 65 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Sand King
Sand KingRAMZES666
52% · 74 games54% · 137 games
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Viper
ViperTopson
55% · 67 games44% · 91 game
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Mirana
MiranaWhitemon
50% · 110 games51% · 137 games
Shadow DemonTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow Demon
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
48% · 210 games54% · 142 games
GrimstrokeSave-
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed10:27
Tundra Esports 56%BETBOOM TEAM 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackPure~
64% · 36 games43% · 38 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainTopson
56% · 45 games49% · 74 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
50% · 208 games45% · 119 games
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Tinker
Tinker9Class
67% · 5 games43% · 109 games
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
53% · 115 games46% · 69 games
Keeper of the LightSave-
Keeper of the Light
Game 3prediction correct28:19
Tundra Esports 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerPure~
53% · 174 games42% · 226 games
MorphlingNightfall
Morphling
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerRAMZES666
49% · 325 games50% · 49 games
Sand KingMieRo
Sand King
Dazzle
DazzleTopson
57% · 50 games49% · 205 games
KunkkagpK~
Kunkka
Naga Siren
Naga Siren9Class
51% · 110 games51% · 248 games
PhoenixTORONTOTOKYO
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWhitemon
45% · 261 game54% · 192 games
GrimstrokeSave-
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3