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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 8 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Sneyking · 7 games
57%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Skiter · 7 games
71%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Skiter · 6 games
50%

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 17 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
69%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
SsaSpartan · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
42%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Focus · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
472 picks · 191 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 587 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 874 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 310 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 446 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total67% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:26
Tundra Esports 58%Brame 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 53:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
51% · 57 games47% · 129 games
Wraith KingFocus
Wraith King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNine
46% · 127 games51% · 40 games
MagnusW1sh-
Magnus
Viper
Viper33
53% · 43 games67% · 62 games
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
Shadow Demon
Abaddon
AbaddonFata
35% · 90 games52% · 106 games
Elder TitanSkyLark
Elder Titan
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSneyking
47% · 65 games59% · 45 games
HoodwinkSsaSpartan
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct28:8
Tundra Esports 61%Brame 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
52% · 60 games54% · 81 game
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerNine
52% · 61 game58% · 36 games
Drow RangerFocus
Drow Ranger
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
55% · 76 games62% · 41 game
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
Shadow Demon
Batrider
Batrider33
42% · 68 games48% · 105 games
TimbersawSkyLark
Timbersaw
Abaddon
AbaddonFata
38% · 78 games47% · 80 games
ViperSsaSpartan
Viper
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 67%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2