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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EHOMEloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
88%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 14 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 13 games
69%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 13 games
92%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 12 games
75%

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 18 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
CatYou · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Night · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Lwwnb · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
13%
Mirana
Miranasignature
CatYou · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 435 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
586 picks · 542 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 444 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
494 picks · 549 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 382 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 213 bans
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
350 picks · 541 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
347 picks · 505 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 38%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:28
Tundra Esports 80%EHOME 20%
The model gave 80% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 51:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSkiter
47% · 275 games49% · 55 games
Spectremks-
Spectre
Lycan
Lycan33
51% · 109 games53% · 116 games
Dragon KnightNight
Dragon Knight
Zeus
ZeusNine
45% · 125 games47% · 241 game
Death Prophetxiaoyu154
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSneyking
49% · 275 games53% · 161 game
UndyingLwwnb
Undying
Riki
RikiSaksa
58% · 109 games49% · 320 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct40:19
Tundra Esports 79%EHOME 21%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSkiter
55% · 290 games48% · 211 games
Monkey Kingmks-
Monkey King
Doom
Doom33
49% · 205 games36% · 141 game
KunkkaNight
Kunkka
Snapfire
SnapfireNine
50% · 402 games49% · 382 games
Death Prophetxiaoyu154
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickSaksa
48% · 451 game52% · 424 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSneyking
60% · 116 games52% · 306 games
UndyingLwwnb
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 94%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2