Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Banesignature
Fata · 15 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 10 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Sneyking · 9 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
458 picks · 298 bans
Queen of Pain
419 picks · 523 bans
Weaver
373 picks · 548 bans
Mars
361 picks · 509 bans
Kunkka
293 picks · 489 bans
Spirit Breaker
270 picks · 505 bans
Wraith King
256 picks · 344 bans
Snapfire
251 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 79%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:34
Tundra Esports 45%Entity 55%
The model gave 55% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 47:19.
Game 2prediction missed33:3
Tundra Esports 45%Entity 55%
The model gave 55% on Entity — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:41.
Game 3prediction missed32:10
Tundra Esports 45%Entity 55%
The model gave 55% on Entity — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 55%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3