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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 13 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 12 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 10 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Skiter · 9 games
56%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Whitemon · 8 games
50%

Entity

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
274 picks · 394 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
262 picks · 394 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 434 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
222 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
220 picks · 566 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
202 picks · 182 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
201 picks · 100 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total67% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:31
Tundra Esports 67%Entity 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 1:04:21.
Game 2prediction correct23:15
Tundra Esports 67%Entity 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:48.
Game 3prediction correct33:23
Tundra Esports 67%Entity 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 67%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3