BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Dark Seersignature
33 · 23 games
Tusksignature
Saksa · 23 games
Tiny
Saksa · 21 game
Axesignature
33 · 20 games
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 19 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
Execration
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 26 games
Marssignature
Tino- · 18 games
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
Tusksignature
Shanks · 15 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 14 games
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 13 games
Pucksignature
Bob · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
621 picks · 307 bans
Disruptor
536 picks · 545 bans
Puck
395 picks · 1112 bans
Hoodwink
376 picks · 197 bans
Mars
358 picks · 607 bans
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
349 picks · 159 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:9
Tundra Esports 74%Execration 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciPure~
LunaPalos
Dragon Knightbzm
PuckBob
Axe33
UndyingTino-
BatriderAri
HoodwinkShanks
BaneWhitemon
Crystal Maidencml
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 89%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1