BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 33 games
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 25 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 24 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 21 game
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 20 games
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
Execration
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 26 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 20 games
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 16 games
Tusksignature
Shanks · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 15 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
773 picks · 354 bans
Disruptor
587 picks · 599 bans
Hoodwink
559 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
458 picks · 275 bans
Dragon Knight
456 picks · 535 bans
Jakiro
450 picks · 280 bans
Mars
447 picks · 737 bans
Puck
430 picks · 1125 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Tundra Esports 71%Execration 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonPure~
Dragon KnightPalos
Leshracbzm
Shadow FiendBob
Centaur Warrunner33
MarsTino-
Shadow DemonAri
SnapfireShanks
JakiroWhitemon
Dazzlecml
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 88%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1