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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
78%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 24 games
75%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 20 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 19 games
63%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 29 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 25 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 22 games
36%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 21 game
52%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
cml · 18 games
39%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
632 picks · 979 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 438 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 632 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 1021 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 478 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 263 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 513 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
414 picks · 566 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total88% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
Tundra Esports 76%Execration 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
48% · 324 games49% · 247 games
WindrangerPalos
Windranger
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPure~
49% · 311 games53% · 210 games
UnderlordTino-
Underlord
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
51% · 220 games48% · 394 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
53% · 162 games54% · 277 games
Batridercml
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
50% · 333 games45% · 222 games
Dark WillowShanks
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct43:15
Tundra Esports 74%Execration 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPure~
51% · 295 games51% · 238 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Doom
Doom33
55% · 155 games53% · 284 games
BatriderTino-
Batrider
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
51% · 330 games42% · 189 games
KunkkaBob
Kunkka
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
53% · 233 games41% · 347 games
RingmasterShanks
Ringmaster
Bane
BaneWhitemon
61% · 206 games42% · 161 game
Enchantresscml
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 88%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2