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BLAST Slam III · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 47 games
66%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 35 games
83%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 26 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 26 games
85%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 24 games
71%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 32 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
39%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
447 picks · 431 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 627 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
330 picks · 656 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
305 picks · 139 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
304 picks · 569 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
303 picks · 171 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
291 picks · 522 bans
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
290 picks · 584 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:27
Tundra Esports 61%Gaimin Gladiators 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 58:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallis
45% · 105 games55% · 71 game
Nature's ProphetWatson
Nature's Prophet
Tinker
Tinkerbzm
50% · 110 games49% · 103 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Doom
Doom33
58% · 194 games50% · 145 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
47% · 152 games47% · 93 games
RingmastertOfu
Ringmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
51% · 75 games48% · 224 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct23:19
Tundra Esports 61%Gaimin Gladiators 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbzm
51% · 273 games48% · 161 game
WeaverWatson
Weaver
Doom
DoomCrystallis
50% · 192 games50% · 255 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
56% · 244 games49% · 359 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
59% · 110 games44% · 127 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Tusk
TuskSaksa
48% · 288 games46% · 205 games
WindrangertOfu
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2