?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 33 games
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 30 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
62%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 26 games
65%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 24 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 23 games
61%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 24 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Scofield · 23 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 22 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 17 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 16 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Davai · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 376 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 426 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 538 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
331 picks · 725 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 638 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
315 picks · 616 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 731 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
Tundra Esports 69%Heroic 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverPure~
53% · 198 games52% · 253 games
Dragon KnightK1
Dragon Knight
Invoker
InvokerTopson
54% · 87 games44% · 176 games
Templar Assassin4nalog
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
56% · 182 games51% · 88 games
MarciDavai
Marci
Mirana
MiranaSaksa
54% · 96 games46% · 131 game
SnapfireScofield
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressWhitemon
48% · 230 games41% · 145 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct28:23
Tundra Esports 67%Heroic 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPure~
48% · 212 games56% · 107 games
Monkey KingK1
Monkey King
Sniper
SniperTopson
52% · 75 games49% · 50 games
Earth Spirit4nalog
Earth Spirit
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
54% · 122 games53% · 61 game
SlarkDavai
Slark
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
47% · 101 game47% · 225 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
44% · 113 games51% · 180 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 80%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2