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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 34 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 33 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 33 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 29 games
59%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 25 games
52%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
33 · 24 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
67%

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 26 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
32%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
37%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 16 games
69%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
KJ · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 15 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
433 picks · 373 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 184 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 788 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
335 picks · 329 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 830 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
277 picks · 545 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 364 bans
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 623 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total77% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:34
Tundra Esports 68%Heroic 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
56% · 150 games24% · 24 games
SpectreYuma
Spectre
Bristleback
Bristleback33
55% · 204 games53% · 20 games
PudgeWisper
Pudge
Sand King
Sand Kingbzm
55% · 81 game48% · 365 games
Batrider4nalog
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaSaksa
50% · 157 games54% · 115 games
BaneScofield
Bane
Disruptor
DisruptorTobi
50% · 133 games44% · 201 game
WarlockKJ
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed12:48
Tundra Esports 67%Heroic 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkerbzm
58% · 61 game50% · 194 games
Nature's ProphetYuma
Nature's Prophet
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageCrystallis
60% · 15 games57% · 105 games
Shadow Fiend4nalog
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand King33
47% · 169 games57% · 110 games
SlardarWisper
Slardar
Tiny
TinySaksa
50% · 352 games45% · 134 games
AbaddonKJ
Abaddon
Warlock
WarlockTobi
44% · 226 games45% · 280 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 77%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2