The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Dark Seersignature
33 · 34 games
Tusksignature
Saksa · 34 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 31 game
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 29 games
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 24 games
Abaddonoften banned
33 · 22 games
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 25 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Tusk
Scofield · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
4nalog · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
363 picks · 263 bans
Puck
320 picks · 703 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 283 bans
Dark Willow
287 picks · 156 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 757 bans
Dawnbreaker
263 picks · 609 bans
Nature's Prophet
259 picks · 522 bans
Marci
244 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:37
Tundra Esports 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordCrystallis
UrsaYuma
Storm Spiritbzm
Earthshaker4nalog
Dark Seer33
BatriderWisper
TinySaksa
Shadow DemonKJ
PugnaTobi
MarciScofield
Game 2prediction missed22:39
Tundra Esports 63%Heroic 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 46:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordCrystallis
Broodmother4nalog
Invokerbzm
PhoenixWisper
Sand King33
PudgeYuma
Monkey KingSaksa
TuskScofield
SilencerTobi
Shadow DemonKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2