BLAST Slam VI · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 24 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 23 games
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 18 games
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
Heroic
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 30 games
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 21 game
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 21 game
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
606 picks · 941 bans
Tusk
525 picks · 433 bans
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 634 bans
Dragon Knight
457 picks · 610 bans
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 957 bans
Warlock
402 picks · 242 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 667 bans
Mars
393 picks · 531 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total79% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:25
Tundra Esports 69%Heroic 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 56:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkPure~
BeastmasterTaiLung
Invokerbzm
BroodmotherYuma
Centaur Warrunner33
UnderlordWisper
ChenWhitemon
JakiroThiolicor
HoodwinkAri
Treant ProtectorKJ
Game 2prediction missed11:36
Tundra Esports 65%Heroic 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaPure~
GyrocopterYuma
Beastmaster33
PuckTaiLung
Dragon Knightbzm
TidehunterWisper
MiranaWhitemon
JakiroThiolicor
MarciAri
TuskKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 79%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2