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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 41 game
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 32 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 31 game
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 27 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 26 games
62%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 26 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 26 games
73%

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakiro
Thiolicor · 35 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 28 games
32%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 24 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 21 game
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Viper
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 20 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
630 picks · 614 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 413 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
473 picks · 407 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 458 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
416 picks · 267 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 191 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 1047 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
379 picks · 861 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total73% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:20
Tundra Esports 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
48% · 61 game54% · 165 games
BristlebackWisper
Bristleback
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
49% · 380 games47% · 67 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Largo
Largo33
55% · 147 games49% · 219 games
TinyYuma
Tiny
Io
IoWhitemon
42% · 22 games50% · 176 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
46% · 86 games55% · 69 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct29:30
Tundra Esports 67%Heroic 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:04:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaV-Tune
50% · 238 games57% · 91 game
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
46% · 443 games44% · 231 game
PangolierTaiLung
Pangolier
Largo
Largo33
62% · 87 games40% · 210 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
68% · 96 games50% · 89 games
DawnbreakerKJ
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
RubickAri
48% · 135 games45% · 378 games
TuskThiolicor
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed11:35
Tundra Esports 63%Heroic 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterV-Tune
46% · 350 games51% · 266 games
PuckTaiLung
Puck
Largo
Largo33
63% · 165 games42% · 192 games
PangolierWisper
Pangolier
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
53% · 211 games48% · 265 games
TinyYuma
Tiny
Io
IoWhitemon
40% · 35 games50% · 223 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Marci
MarciAri
50% · 263 games50% · 78 games
Ancient ApparitionKJ
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 73%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3