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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubick
9Class · 26 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Whitemon · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 20 games
50%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
9Class · 17 games
47%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 17 games
71%
Techies
Techies
Whitemon · 16 games
56%

HULIGANI

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 19 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
OneJey · 17 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 15 games
80%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OneJey · 15 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
OneJey · 14 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 14 games
57%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
OneJey · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
341 picks · 286 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
338 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 437 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 521 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
302 picks · 294 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 431 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 477 bans
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
292 picks · 343 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 75%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:53
Tundra Esports 59%HULIGANI 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:02:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaShad
53% · 179 games51% · 102 games
BristlebackTobi
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierMidOne
49% · 251 game50% · 100 games
Earth SpiritAdzantick
Earth Spirit
Visage
Visage33
38% · 60 games55% · 145 games
AlchemistCrystallis
Alchemist
Enchantress
EnchantressWhitemon
48% · 218 games53% · 247 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Marci
MarciSaksa
50% · 79 games51% · 193 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct18:23
Tundra Esports 59%HULIGANI 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaShad
50% · 195 games49% · 70 games
MedusaCrystallis
Medusa
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
45% · 122 games50% · 179 games
PuckAdzantick
Puck
Broodmother
BroodmotherMidOne
54% · 37 games57% · 82 games
EnigmaTobi
Enigma
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
37% · 12 games51% · 137 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Enchantress
EnchantressWhitemon
47% · 182 games55% · 80 games
MarciPanto
Marci
Game 3prediction correct42:15
Tundra Esports 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
51% · 137 games45% · 130 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Windranger
WindrangerShad
48% · 173 games49% · 143 games
InvokerAdzantick
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierMidOne
51% · 227 games47% · 85 games
VisageTobi
Visage
Enchantress
EnchantressSaksa
52% · 156 games51% · 235 games
SnapfireOneJey
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
57% · 171 game49% · 271 game
TuskPanto
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3