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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 30 games
53%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 23 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 22 games
68%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 20 games
65%

LGD Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 17 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 15 games
93%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
86%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
984 picks · 707 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
601 picks · 448 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 444 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
543 picks · 870 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 369 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
496 picks · 353 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
495 picks · 1082 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
491 picks · 1168 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total74% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Tundra Esports 63%LGD Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
52% · 130 games46% · 28 games
Muertashiro
Muerta
Doom
Doom33
50% · 250 games54% · 313 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNine
47% · 123 games47% · 49 games
Legion Commanderzeal
Legion Commander
Slark
SlarkSaksa
52% · 103 games52% · 126 games
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
43% · 177 games53% · 267 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed12:31
Tundra Esports 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
50% · 258 games52% · 125 games
Naga Sirenshiro
Naga Siren
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkiter
36% · 53 games53% · 181 game
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Alchemist
AlchemistNine
56% · 88 games55% · 396 games
Pangolierzeal
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
46% · 201 game49% · 23 games
Ancient Apparitiony`
Ancient Apparition
Rubick
RubickSneyking
45% · 478 games51% · 353 games
MiranapLAnet
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct36:15
Tundra Esports 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
50% · 63 games53% · 89 games
Bloodseekershiro
Bloodseeker
Doom
Doom33
43% · 168 games60% · 90 games
Lycanzeal
Lycan
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNine
42% · 77 games54% · 124 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
52% · 19 games54% · 22 games
Ancient Apparitiony`
Ancient Apparition
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
52% · 232 games46% · 234 games
DisruptorpLAnet
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 74%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3