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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Moodeng Warriorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 34 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 33 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 33 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 30 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 24 games
71%

Moodeng Warriors

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Oli · 6 games
33%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Jabz · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 5 games
40%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
JT- · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
516 picks · 803 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 627 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
493 picks · 498 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
468 picks · 566 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
433 picks · 368 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
430 picks · 1011 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 780 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
393 picks · 211 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:16
Tundra Esports 84%Moodeng Warriors 16%
The model gave 84% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
52% · 114 games58% · 177 games
MagnusAbed
Magnus
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightdyrachyo
53% · 223 games50% · 271 game
TimbersawJT-
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
47% · 90 games44% · 8 games
Phantom Lancer423
Phantom Lancer
Marci
MarciSaksa
49% · 46 gameslittle data
RingmasterJabz
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
35% · 23 games42% · 40 games
UndyingOli
Undying
Game 2prediction correct34:24
Tundra Esports 84%Moodeng Warriors 16%
The model gave 84% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenbzm
little data47% · 94 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Broodmother
Broodmother33
53% · 62 games47% · 30 games
DawnbreakerJT-
Dawnbreaker
Pudge
Pudgedyrachyo
56% · 15 games27% · 7 games
Spectre423
Spectre
Slark
SlarkSaksa
45% · 37 games57% · 29 games
MarciJabz
Marci
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
54% · 165 games46% · 119 games
PhoenixOli
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 96%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2