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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MOUZloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 21 game
57%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 19 games
53%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 19 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
56%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 34 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 30 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 25 games
60%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 24 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
606 picks · 300 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
528 picks · 528 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 1092 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
361 picks · 190 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 592 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
348 picks · 390 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
346 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 259 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Tundra Esports 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPure~
44% · 47 games46% · 203 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
48% · 317 games53% · 180 games
Shadow FiendMidOne
Shadow Fiend
Axe
Axe33
42% · 104 games55% · 282 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Naga Siren
Naga SirenWhitemon
59% · 151 game54% · 185 games
Snapfireyamich
Snapfire
Batrider
BatriderAri
49% · 383 games48% · 152 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1