BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MOUZloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 34 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 27 games
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 26 games
Abaddonoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 21 game
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 53 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
Pudgesignature
yamich · 39 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 31 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 31 game
Marssignature
BOOM · 30 games
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
778 picks · 356 bans
Disruptor
583 picks · 589 bans
Hoodwink
569 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 548 bans
Jakiro
474 picks · 292 bans
Tusk
467 picks · 273 bans
Mars
455 picks · 743 bans
Puck
436 picks · 1118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:14
Tundra Esports 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonPure~
GyrocopterCrystallis
Invokerbzm
Dark SeerBOOM
Lycan33
SlardarMidOne
Shadow ShamanAri
Pudgeyamich
BaneWhitemon
JakiroSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 53%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1