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BLAST Slam V · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 35 games
63%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 29 games
72%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 27 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
52%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Pure~ · 23 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 19 games
58%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 57 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 46 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 41 game
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 34 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 34 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 32 games
66%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 30 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 359 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
577 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 561 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
520 picks · 366 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
503 picks · 608 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 282 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
469 picks · 748 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 503 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Tundra Esports 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaPure~
49% · 190 games52% · 89 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
49% · 308 games54% · 266 games
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Nature's Prophet
Axe
Axe33
48% · 220 games50% · 248 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenWhitemon
51% · 166 games54% · 156 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
48% · 269 games47% · 394 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct23:12
Tundra Esports 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautPure~
60% · 71 game56% · 267 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Invoker
Invokerbzm
45% · 133 games49% · 130 games
Primal BeastBOOM
Primal Beast
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner33
53% · 281 game50% · 264 games
Ember SpiritMidOne
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
46% · 456 games51% · 299 games
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
45% · 249 games47% · 230 games
Shadow Demonyamich
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2