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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
58%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
76%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 23 games
74%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 20 games
65%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 19 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 18 games
67%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 67 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 46 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 36 games
72%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 34 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
617 picks · 957 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 422 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 629 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 969 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 526 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 462 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
412 picks · 254 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 657 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
Tundra Esports 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
49% · 276 games52% · 239 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPure~
52% · 224 games49% · 326 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Tiny
Tinybzm
47% · 563 games45% · 351 game
Storm SpiritMidOne
Storm Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
53% · 345 games46% · 499 games
JakiroSeleri
Jakiro
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
55% · 72 games55% · 65 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed21:28
Tundra Esports 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Largo
Largo33
55% · 58 games51% · 274 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Bristleback
Bristlebackbzm
54% · 351 game45% · 305 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPure~
46% · 394 games52% · 331 game
BatriderBOOM
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
48% · 423 games48% · 133 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Marci
MarciAri
54% · 274 games49% · 457 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2