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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 42 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 30 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 30 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 26 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 25 games
68%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 24 games
63%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 75 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 52 games
56%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 44 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 43 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 41 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
678 picks · 836 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
585 picks · 606 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 419 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
481 picks · 328 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
419 picks · 1096 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 697 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
398 picks · 1014 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 627 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total83% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
Tundra Esports 69%MOUZ 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
47% · 182 games53% · 188 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Muerta
MuertaPure~
58% · 216 games49% · 522 games
PuckMidOne
Puck
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
51% · 294 games46% · 186 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
49% · 364 games49% · 172 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskAri
46% · 462 games52% · 450 games
Shadow Shamanyamich
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct38:28
Tundra Esports 69%MOUZ 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPure~
47% · 386 games46% · 334 games
Templar AssassinCrystallis
Templar Assassin
Largo
Largo33
56% · 100 games52% · 347 games
BatriderBOOM
Batrider
Sand King
Sand Kingbzm
54% · 193 games52% · 531 game
Storm SpiritMidOne
Storm Spirit
Tusk
TuskAri
44% · 596 games49% · 298 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
46% · 696 games54% · 461 game
Shadow Shamanyamich
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 83%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2