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GAMERS GALAXY: Invitational Series Dubai 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nigma Galaxywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 16 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
77%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Fata · 12 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 10 games
60%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 8 games
88%

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
17%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
GH · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
538 picks · 362 bans
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
475 picks · 572 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 595 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
417 picks · 724 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
350 picks · 541 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 574 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
333 picks · 163 bans
47%
Wraith King
Wraith King
280 picks · 355 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:45
Tundra Esports 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
45% · 135 games54% · 148 games
TinyiLTW
Tiny
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
51% · 113 games49% · 185 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNine
54% · 216 games49% · 124 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
51% · 143 games50% · 176 games
WeaverKuroKy
Weaver
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
45% · 153 games54% · 127 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1