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Gamers Without Borders 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 18 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 17 games
71%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 16 games
63%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 15 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 14 games
64%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
33 · 12 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 13 games
62%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 275 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 595 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 470 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
354 picks · 480 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
352 picks · 767 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 500 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
310 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
302 picks · 447 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total78% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
Tundra Esports 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
54% · 103 games48% · 112 games
Phantom AssassinMiracle-
Phantom Assassin
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
47% · 70 games56% · 119 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNine
49% · 52 games52% · 178 games
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
Dragon Knight
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
42% · 59 games56% · 38 games
Dark SeerrmN-
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
46% · 184 games45% · 21 game
EnigmaKuroKy
Enigma
Game 2prediction correct58:23
Tundra Esports 67%Nigma Galaxy 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
40% · 58 games55% · 223 games
WeaverMiracle-
Weaver
Doom
Doom33
49% · 131 game53% · 182 games
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
Tidehunter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
47% · 210 games52% · 93 games
TuskrmN-
Tusk
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSaksa
47% · 221 game55% · 77 games
Shadow ShamanGH
Shadow Shaman
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
50% · 47 games54% · 92 games
Treant ProtectorKuroKy
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 78%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2