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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 32 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 24 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 18 games
83%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 17 games
88%

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantress
KuroKy · 8 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
982 picks · 664 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 480 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 941 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
559 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
525 picks · 522 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 349 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1117 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 358 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 28%
Hero pool strength64% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total86% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:16
Tundra Esports 75%Nigma Galaxy 25%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 54:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
50% · 93 games39% · 147 games
Drow RangerMiracle-
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
55% · 275 games50% · 214 games
Dragon KnightSumaiL
Dragon Knight
Riki
RikiNine
58% · 82 games50% · 193 games
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Timbersaw
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
48% · 220 games47% · 43 games
Shadow DemonGH
Shadow Demon
Snapfire
SnapfireAramis
52% · 331 game51% · 404 games
ClockwerkKuroKy
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct25:4
Tundra Esports 74%Nigma Galaxy 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
54% · 60 games51% · 68 games
SvenMiracle-
Sven
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
43% · 129 games46% · 131 game
ZeusSumaiL
Zeus
Visage
Visage33
58% · 86 games48% · 248 games
DoomMinD_ContRoL
Doom
Rubick
RubickAramis
48% · 349 games55% · 77 games
Shadow DemonGH
Shadow Demon
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
50% · 216 games50% · 316 games
DisruptorKuroKy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 86%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2