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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 26 games
62%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 23 games
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 22 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
53%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 31 game
74%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 27 games
59%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
665 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
564 picks · 575 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
424 picks · 224 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1153 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 638 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 257 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 398 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
351 picks · 936 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:42
Tundra Esports 70%Nigma Galaxy 30%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezPure~
36% · 6 games53% · 321 game
GyrocopterGhost
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
41% · 252 games48% · 140 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Doom
Doom33
48% · 153 games48% · 109 games
Bounty HunterHellscream
Bounty Hunter
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
50% · 183 games65% · 125 games
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
Enigma
Tusk
TuskAri
44% · 278 games59% · 177 games
ChenTobi
Chen
Game 2prediction correct36:19
Tundra Esports 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
59% · 107 games43% · 3 games
Lone DruidGhost
Lone Druid
Puck
Puckbzm
44% · 152 games47% · 133 games
TimbersawSumaiL
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
48% · 108 games50% · 122 games
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
Slardar
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAri
49% · 47 games51% · 23 games
Spirit BreakerHellscream
Spirit Breaker
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
48% · 121 game54% · 254 games
JakiroTobi
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct43:25
Tundra Esports 72%Nigma Galaxy 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPure~
47% · 100 games46% · 233 games
GyrocopterGhost
Gyrocopter
Axe
Axe33
49% · 93 games60% · 119 games
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
Enigma
Puck
Puckbzm
47% · 389 games56% · 211 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Muerta
MuertaWhitemon
41% · 334 games59% · 217 games
JakiroTobi
Jakiro
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAri
51% · 107 games46% · 243 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3