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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 27 games
63%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 23 games
70%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 19 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 13 games
69%

OG

Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
66%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 25 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 20 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
69%
Viper
Vipersignature
ATF · 16 games
69%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 391 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
475 picks · 708 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
312 picks · 520 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
304 picks · 471 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
288 picks · 671 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 387 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
271 picks · 861 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 369 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total51% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
Tundra Esports 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkSkiter
63% · 40 games47% · 293 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Visage
Visage33
50% · 91 game44% · 162 games
MorphlingYuragi
Morphling
Tusk
TuskNine
52% · 117 games48% · 185 games
Sand KingATF
Sand King
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
55% · 152 games50% · 25 games
OracleTaiga
Oracle
Tiny
TinySaksa
51% · 332 games48% · 67 games
Crystal MaidenMisha
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed34:23
Tundra Esports 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
49% · 30 games45% · 74 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNine
60% · 49 games51% · 48 games
Phantom LancerYuragi
Phantom Lancer
Visage
Visage33
51% · 77 games51% · 43 games
Primal Beastbzm
Primal Beast
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSaksa
50% · 81 game48% · 27 games
OracleTaiga
Oracle
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
46% · 80 games50% · 125 games
MarciMisha
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 51%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2