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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 36 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 30 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 29 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 26 games
69%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 26 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
33 · 19 games
53%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 28 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Ceb · 19 games
68%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 17 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 17 games
47%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 16 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
348 picks · 168 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
266 picks · 350 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
215 picks · 433 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
210 picks · 340 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
209 picks · 297 bans
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
207 picks · 400 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
207 picks · 371 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
204 picks · 445 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head8 – 0
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:17
Tundra Esports 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
41% · 52 games56% · 22 games
GyrocopterYuragi
Gyrocopter
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
58% · 53 games54% · 50 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Clinkz
ClinkzTopson
46% · 12 games51% · 50 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSneyking
49% · 35 games47% · 46 games
EarthshakerCeb
Earthshaker
Bane
BaneNine
47% · 16 games
Game 2prediction missed17:42
Tundra Esports 66%OG 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 48:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperTopson
46% · 52 games49% · 59 games
SvenYuragi
Sven
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
57% · 73 games48% · 110 games
Leshracbzm
Leshrac
Slark
SlarkSkiter
57% · 82 games44% · 61 game
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSneyking
46% · 29 games45% · 25 games
IoCeb
Io
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterNine
57% · 19 games
Game 3prediction missed6:32
Tundra Esports 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 20:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
52% · 192 games48% · 63 games
Troll WarlordYuragi
Troll Warlord
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkiter
49% · 52 games41% · 91 game
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTopson
48% · 47 games51% · 170 games
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNine
49% · 55 games55% · 188 games
Treant ProtectorCeb
Treant Protector
Undying
UndyingSneyking
57% · 166 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3