PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 3:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 3:1
OGloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 29 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 16 games
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 12 games
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
OG
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 29 games
Iosignature
Ceb · 16 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
Rubick
Ari · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 16 games
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
463 picks · 737 bans
Mars
430 picks · 692 bans
Techies
426 picks · 340 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 546 bans
Batrider
412 picks · 892 bans
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
Crystal Maiden
394 picks · 176 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:21
Tundra Esports 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaPure~
GyrocopterTimado
SniperTopson
Razorbzm
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
MarsWisper
Rubick9Class
IoCeb
Elder TitanWhitemon
DisruptorAri
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Tundra Esports 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPure~
Drow RangerTimado
SniperTopson
BroodmotherWisper
LycanTobi
Kunkkabzm
TechiesWhitemon
EnchantressCeb
Disruptor9Class
TuskAri
Game 3prediction missed26:36
Tundra Esports 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoPure~
LunaTimado
OmniknightTopson
Primal Beastbzm
BrewmasterTobi
TidehunterWisper
Bane9Class
DoomAri
MiranaWhitemon
DisruptorCeb
Game 4prediction correct30:7
Tundra Esports 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaPure~
GyrocopterTimado
PuckTopson
Ember Spiritbzm
OmniknightTobi
BrewmasterWisper
Batrider9Class
Keeper of the LightCeb
ClockwerkWhitemon
RubickAri
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4