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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 31 game
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 31 game
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
76%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 29 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 26 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 25 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
33 · 23 games
70%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 26 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ari · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 21 game
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
457 picks · 612 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
392 picks · 426 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 475 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
333 picks · 417 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
314 picks · 603 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 167 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 352 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
274 picks · 800 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total76% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:38
Tundra Esports 68%OG 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 48:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNightfall
51% · 190 games51% · 252 games
Gyrocopter23savage
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
46% · 213 games43% · 91 game
Earth SpiritNine
Earth Spirit
Viper
ViperLorenof
59% · 49 games48% · 48 games
DawnbreakerWisper
Dawnbreaker
Chen
ChenWhitemon
57% · 126 games50% · 251 game
BatriderAri
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
53% · 308 games45% · 244 games
TuskxNova
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed21:46
Tundra Esports 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 48:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNightfall
49% · 207 games58% · 151 game
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Sniper
SniperLorenof
49% · 71 game44% · 91 game
DawnbreakerWisper
Dawnbreaker
Sand King
Sand King33
48% · 140 games52% · 95 games
ZeusNine
Zeus
Muerta
MuertaSaksa
45% · 113 games62% · 82 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
43% · 179 games51% · 291 game
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 76%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2