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BLAST Slam I · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
OGloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 32 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 31 game
61%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 24 games
58%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
33 · 23 games
70%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 28 games
46%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 23 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 15 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 685 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
427 picks · 484 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 541 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 179 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 462 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 641 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 320 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total72% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:4
Tundra Esports 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNightfall
54% · 186 games43% · 181 game
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
51% · 309 games50% · 202 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Doom
Doom33
53% · 195 games53% · 143 games
Earth SpiritNine
Earth Spirit
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
58% · 137 games36% · 140 games
TechiesAri
Techies
Muerta
MuertaSaksa
50% · 128 games49% · 289 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 72%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1