?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 40 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 28 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 28 games
75%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
77%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 26 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 25 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 24 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 24 games
67%

PARIVISION

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 19 games
84%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 19 games
58%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 17 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
No[o]ne · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
641 picks · 815 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 581 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
461 picks · 401 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
453 picks · 301 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
408 picks · 1051 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 682 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 608 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
368 picks · 971 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:30
Tundra Esports 64%PARIVISION 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 53:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPure~
44% · 96 games47% · 166 games
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
46% · 153 games52% · 138 games
UrsaSatanic
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
50% · 345 games49% · 197 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
63% · 120 games48% · 288 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
47% · 255 games54% · 180 games
Shadow Demon9Class
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct27:13
Tundra Esports 63%PARIVISION 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaPure~
49% · 200 games47% · 444 games
BeastmasterSatanic
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand Kingbzm
50% · 178 games56% · 110 games
HuskarNo[o]ne
Huskar
Batrider
Batrider33
54% · 283 games53% · 469 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
49% · 450 games44% · 150 games
DazzleDukalis
Dazzle
Tusk
TuskAri
48% · 480 games50% · 418 games
Shadow Shaman9Class
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2