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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 48 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 31 game
68%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 26 games
73%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 25 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
54%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 30 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 27 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 24 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
52%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 23 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Malik · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 670 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 452 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 374 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
311 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 592 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
307 picks · 191 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
302 picks · 219 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
290 picks · 532 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:35
Tundra Esports 56%PSG Quest 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPure~
47% · 53 games47% · 59 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Zeus
ZeusTopson
35% · 47 games53% · 96 games
BeastmasterMalik
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
48% · 132 games57% · 130 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Hoodwink
Hoodwink9Class
50% · 149 games54% · 59 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
50% · 68 games54% · 105 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct41:25
Tundra Esports 55%PSG Quest 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:02:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingTopson
67% · 14 games48% · 132 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackPure~
59% · 50 games44% · 113 games
BeastmasterMalik
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomRAMZES666
50% · 229 games47% · 228 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Rubick
Rubick9Class
50% · 376 games51% · 64 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
53% · 52 games46% · 184 games
GyrocopterOmaR
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2