?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
REKONIXloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 43 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 32 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 30 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 26 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 26 games
73%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 24 games
63%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 21 game
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
inYourdreaM · 14 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 13 games
23%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dalul · 11 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
688 picks · 847 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
594 picks · 612 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 425 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
489 picks · 337 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
424 picks · 1111 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1033 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 701 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 631 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 37%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total97% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:6
Tundra Esports 86%REKONIX 14%
The model gave 86% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
51% · 259 games46% · 325 games
PangolierFbz
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPure~
48% · 320 games48% · 90 games
LifestealerTraVins
Lifestealer
Doom
Doom33
51% · 149 games51% · 168 games
Primal BeastinYourdreaM
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderAri
51% · 236 games54% · 314 games
Nature's Prophetdalul
Nature's Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
54% · 122 games44% · 189 games
SilencerVarizh
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct31:13
Tundra Esports 85%REKONIX 15%
The model gave 85% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracbzm
48% · 181 game55% · 377 games
UrsaTraVins
Ursa
Bristleback
Bristleback33
55% · 330 games50% · 405 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPure~
44% · 371 game43% · 328 games
PangolierinYourdreaM
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
51% · 221 game52% · 459 games
Ringmasterdalul
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskAri
51% · 573 games52% · 107 games
LionVarizh
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 97%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2