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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 27 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 26 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
46%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
33 · 19 games
53%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Skiter · 18 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Nine · 18 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 17 games
59%

Talon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Oli · 18 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Windranger
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Q · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 13 games
54%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Oli · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 392 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
187 picks · 258 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
171 picks · 250 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
170 picks · 354 bans
51%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
168 picks · 308 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
163 picks · 98 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total66% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:21
Tundra Esports 58%Talon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
44% · 30 games57% · 96 games
Faceless Void23savage
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierTopson
52% · 179 games45% · 90 games
EarthshakerMikoto
Earthshaker
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
45% · 73 games61% · 55 games
Legion CommanderJabz
Legion Commander
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSneyking
50% · 96 games52% · 83 games
Dark WillowQ
Dark Willow
Weaver
WeaverNine
40% · 6 games44% · 60 games
Vengeful SpiritOli
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct19:22
Tundra Esports 57%Talon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkiter
42% · 64 games61% · 81 game
Sven23savage
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
51% · 82 games51% · 31 game
LinaMikoto
Lina
Dazzle
DazzleTopson
47% · 22 games56% · 114 games
Nature's ProphetQ
Nature's Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
42% · 94 games50% · 47 games
KunkkaJabz
Kunkka
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNine
40% · 71 game59% · 60 games
WarlockOli
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 66%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2