The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 33 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 32 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 27 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 23 games
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 22 games
Team Aster
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 26 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 25 games
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
662 picks · 453 bans
Techies
657 picks · 694 bans
Doom
578 picks · 1124 bans
Beastmaster
497 picks · 1215 bans
Ember Spirit
486 picks · 1038 bans
Disruptor
478 picks · 447 bans
Enchantress
463 picks · 714 bans
Pangolier
437 picks · 907 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Tundra Esports 55%Team Aster 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerSkiter
Naga SirenMonet
RazorNine
LeshracSumaiL
Dark Seer33
TidehunterXxs
BatriderSneyking
IoBoBoKa
VisageAui_2000
UndyingFantasy
Game 2prediction missed15:38
Tundra Esports 54%Team Aster 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Aster in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw33
LeshracSumaiL
SnapfireNine
Monkey KingMonet
BloodseekerSkiter
MarsXxs
EnigmaSneyking
IoBoBoKa
LichAui_2000
BatriderFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2