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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Aureuswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 23 games
65%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 21 game
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 21 game
57%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 19 games
53%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 18 games
72%

Team Aureus

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 15 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 12 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
627 picks · 310 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
541 picks · 549 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 1120 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
382 picks · 203 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 614 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 390 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
350 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
348 picks · 269 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 66%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:29
Tundra Esports 74%Team Aureus 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
46% · 295 games47% · 174 games
WindrangerNatsumi
Windranger
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPure~
47% · 376 games54% · 389 games
BristlebackForce
Bristleback
Puck
Puckbzm
51% · 350 games56% · 326 games
Monkey KingYopaj
Monkey King
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
48% · 298 games49% · 265 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Marci
MarciAri
51% · 210 games51% · 375 games
BatriderSkem
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 89%
Series resultTeam Aureus 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1