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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 41 game
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 30 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 29 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
86%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 27 games
67%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 58 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 48 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 36 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
88%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 33 games
58%
Muerta
Muerta
Cr1t- · 30 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 794 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
450 picks · 320 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
437 picks · 677 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
427 picks · 793 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 875 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
397 picks · 380 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 530 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 1071 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head8 – 10
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:30
Tundra Esports 56%Team Falcons 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
47% · 83 games50% · 64 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Lycan
Lycan33
51% · 28 games53% · 249 games
Storm SpiritQuinn
Storm Spirit
Razor
RazorCrystallis
40% · 56 games57% · 122 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Tiny
TinySaksa
48% · 288 games54% · 183 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
49% · 195 games46% · 32 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct29:11
Tundra Esports 58%Team Falcons 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetbzm
52% · 125 games47% · 380 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
55% · 232 games57% · 158 games
Dark SeerATF
Dark Seer
Sand King
Sand King33
51% · 161 game45% · 113 games
KunkkaQuinn
Kunkka
Medusa
MedusaSaksa
46% · 91 game50% · 124 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
52% · 220 games43% · 54 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2