Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
Doomsignature
33 · 37 games
Tusksignature
Saksa · 32 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
Dark Seersignature
33 · 30 games
Abaddonsignature
33 · 25 games
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 25 games
Team Falcons
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 48 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 37 games
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 25 games
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
Jakiro
Sneyking · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
499 picks · 531 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 458 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 361 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 516 bans
Ringmaster
348 picks · 198 bans
Terrorblade
344 picks · 725 bans
Storm Spirit
309 picks · 460 bans
Jakiro
307 picks · 195 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head9 – 8
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:25
Tundra Esports 58%Team Falcons 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingCrystallis
GyrocopterSkiter
Storm Spiritbzm
MarsATF
Visage33
BeastmasterMalr1ne
MarciSaksa
Ancient ApparitionCr1t-
DazzleWhitemon
TuskSneyking
Game 2prediction missed49:51
Tundra Esports 59%Team Falcons 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:20:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painbzm
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
DoomCrystallis
BristlebackATF
Undying33
TinySkiter
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
MiranaSneyking
TuskSaksa
BatriderCr1t-
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2