BLAST Slam IV · BO5
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 3:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team Falconsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 30 games
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 23 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 20 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 19 games
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 19 games
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
Tusk
Saksa · 19 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 39 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 26 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 19 games
Marssignature
ATF · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
720 picks · 346 bans
Disruptor
597 picks · 631 bans
Hoodwink
501 picks · 257 bans
Tusk
417 picks · 255 bans
Puck
415 picks · 1175 bans
Mars
412 picks · 692 bans
Dragon Knight
400 picks · 412 bans
Pugna
355 picks · 396 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 81%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 5
Model total74% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
Tundra Esports 37%Team Falcons 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaPure~
VenomancerSkiter
Doom33
RazorATF
Storm Spiritbzm
PangolierMalr1ne
JakiroWhitemon
PugnaSneyking
BatriderAri
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Game 2prediction missed40:20
Tundra Esports 37%Team Falcons 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw33
WeaverSkiter
Faceless VoidPure~
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Invokerbzm
Legion CommanderATF
ClockwerkWhitemon
SnapfireCr1t-
BatriderAri
PugnaSneyking
Game 3prediction correct2:23
Tundra Esports 36%Team Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan33
DoomATF
Lone DruidPure~
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Dragon Knightbzm
AbaddonSkiter
EnchantressWhitemon
ChenSneyking
Spirit BreakerAri
RingmasterCr1t-
Game 4prediction missed26:28
Tundra Esports 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPure~
GyrocopterSkiter
Queen of Painbzm
PuckMalr1ne
Timbersaw33
MarsATF
HoodwinkAri
EnchantressSneyking
BaneWhitemon
BatriderCr1t-
Game 5prediction missed28:29
Tundra Esports 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 56:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPure~
PuckMalr1ne
Queen of Painbzm
GyrocopterSkiter
Timbersaw33
MarsATF
HoodwinkAri
EnchantressSneyking
BaneWhitemon
BatriderCr1t-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 74%
Series resultTundra Esports 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5