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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Liquidwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
50%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
miCKe · 7 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Taiga · 4 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 4 games
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Taiga · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
miCKe · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
334 picks · 675 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
317 picks · 390 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
265 picks · 465 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
246 picks · 207 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
217 picks · 119 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
215 picks · 323 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
212 picks · 635 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 243 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:39
Tundra Esports 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkiter
54% · 27 games42% · 13 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Kunkka
KunkkaNine
56% · 19 games38% · 13 games
Storm Spiritqojqva
Storm Spirit
Death Prophet
Death Prophet33
57% · 61 game40% · 46 games
MarsBoxi
Mars
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFata
57% · 3 games56% · 31 game
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
Keeper of the Light
33% · 7 games
Dark WillowTaiga
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 56%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1