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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 11 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 8 games
88%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fata · 7 games
57%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Skiter · 7 games
71%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 20 games
45%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 13 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 12 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
qojqva · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
479 picks · 192 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
379 picks · 209 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 595 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 875 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
333 picks · 309 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 451 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 409 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
Tundra Esports 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNine
49% · 82 games47% · 59 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
55% · 83 games46% · 75 games
Storm Spiritqojqva
Storm Spirit
Broodmother
Broodmother33
50% · 27 games46% · 170 games
MarsBoxi
Mars
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
59% · 103 games50% · 32 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinFata
58% · 119 games39% · 78 games
HoodwinkTaiga
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct27:23
Tundra Esports 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
58% · 70 games57% · 83 games
Templar Assassinqojqva
Templar Assassin
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
46% · 81 game50% · 79 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderNine
41% · 67 games50% · 90 games
LeshracTaiga
Leshrac
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
52% · 141 game53% · 52 games
Sand KingBoxi
Sand King
Abaddon
AbaddonFata
42% · 78 games51% · 133 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2