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Gamers Without Borders 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 18 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 17 games
71%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 16 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 15 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 15 games
73%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 14 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
33 · 12 games
67%

Team Liquid

Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
iNSaNiA · 9 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 9 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
88%
Luna
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 283 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
446 picks · 609 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 476 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
371 picks · 491 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 779 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 517 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
319 picks · 494 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
317 picks · 465 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total66% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:24
Tundra Esports 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 52:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
46% · 25 games49% · 39 games
Nature's ProphetMATUMBAMAN
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNine
44% · 167 games55% · 161 game
Death ProphetmiCKe
Death Prophet
Visage
Visage33
38% · 17 games55% · 64 games
Night Stalkerzai
Night Stalker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSaksa
52% · 93 games58% · 103 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSneyking
45% · 218 games53% · 153 games
IoBoxi
Io
Game 2prediction missed7:38
Tundra Esports 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
44% · 84 games54% · 215 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
51% · 181 game48% · 41 game
Nature's ProphetMATUMBAMAN
Nature's Prophet
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
52% · 220 games50% · 170 games
Pangolierzai
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
50% · 133 games48% · 252 games
GrimstrokeBoxi
Grimstroke
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSneyking
51% · 121 game50% · 61 game
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Game 3prediction missed25:23
Tundra Esports 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorSkiter
57% · 241 game52% · 217 games
Wraith KingMATUMBAMAN
Wraith King
Doom
Doom33
44% · 171 game53% · 272 games
LinamiCKe
Lina
Snapfire
SnapfireNine
44% · 398 games49% · 512 games
Marszai
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
46% · 381 game55% · 176 games
Shadow DemonBoxi
Shadow Demon
Io
IoSneyking
52% · 272 games48% · 286 games
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 66%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3