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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 34 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 26 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
68%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 18 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 18 games
83%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 31 game
68%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 23 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 19 games
79%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
zai · 15 games
80%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 15 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 15 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
996 picks · 673 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 483 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
604 picks · 954 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
561 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
520 picks · 356 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1154 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
508 picks · 496 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
496 picks · 356 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total67% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:38
Tundra Esports 39%Team Liquid 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
49% · 251 game42% · 34 games
Anti-MagemiCKe
Anti-Mage
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
50% · 74 games51% · 245 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNine
51% · 46 games49% · 30 games
Underlordzai
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAramis
52% · 91 game47% · 321 game
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Undying
UndyingSneyking
49% · 353 games55% · 185 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed41:30
Tundra Esports 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkiter
42% · 48 games53% · 39 games
Anti-MagemiCKe
Anti-Mage
Doom
Doom33
52% · 147 games51% · 230 games
Enigmazai
Enigma
Pangolier
PangolierNine
44% · 285 games57% · 194 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAramis
46% · 50 games52% · 105 games
IoBoxi
Io
Undying
UndyingSneyking
49% · 264 games53% · 226 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct39:50
Tundra Esports 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 57:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
50% · 178 games50% · 184 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierNine
49% · 381 game51% · 223 games
Doomzai
Doom
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
49% · 133 games54% · 252 games
BatriderNisha
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireAramis
47% · 410 games47% · 502 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
52% · 75 games54% · 16 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3