Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomoften banned
33 · 40 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 34 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 30 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 29 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nine · 24 games
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 36 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 26 games
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 687 bans
Rubick
516 picks · 338 bans
Doom
450 picks · 967 bans
Batrider
417 picks · 925 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 858 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 350 bans
Beastmaster
387 picks · 1002 bans
Pugna
382 picks · 447 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total61% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:38
Tundra Esports 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightSkiter
Monkey KingmiCKe
Timbersaw33
SnapfireNisha
RazorNine
Dark Seerzai
TechiesSneyking
LionBoxi
ClockwerkAui_2000
OracleiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction correct17:43
Tundra Esports 42%Team Liquid 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer33
Lycanzai
PuckNine
Faceless VoidmiCKe
RazorSkiter
Storm SpiritNisha
LionAui_2000
RubickBoxi
ClockwerkSneyking
IoiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 61%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2