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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 45 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 41 game
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 31 game
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
86%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 28 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 27 games
63%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 39 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 31 game
74%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 28 games
82%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 691 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
415 picks · 306 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 398 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
372 picks · 849 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
370 picks · 979 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
367 picks · 616 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 494 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total67% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:12
Tundra Esports 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 23:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycan33
50% · 54 games50% · 103 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Razor
RazorCrystallis
43% · 105 games53% · 159 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
47% · 293 games44% · 192 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenWhitemon
58% · 121 game50% · 235 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
53% · 131 game61% · 15 games
SilenceriNSaNiA
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct33:15
Tundra Esports 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbzm
54% · 246 games44% · 198 games
TerrorblademiCKe
Terrorblade
Doom
Doom33
52% · 221 game51% · 234 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
52% · 247 games48% · 203 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskSaksa
54% · 224 games49% · 150 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
38% · 15 games46% · 168 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 67%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2