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The International 2022 · BO5
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 3:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Team Secretloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 22 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 16 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 13 games
69%

Team Secret

Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 20 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 18 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 17 games
71%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 17 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 323 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
440 picks · 638 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
321 picks · 534 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
268 picks · 419 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
260 picks · 813 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
258 picks · 359 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
239 picks · 557 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
239 picks · 122 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total50% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:14
Tundra Esports 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
45% · 43 games60% · 101 game
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
42% · 80 games54% · 37 games
PudgeCrystallis
Pudge
Tusk
TuskNine
51% · 137 games54% · 89 games
EnigmaResolut1on
Enigma
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
46% · 147 games54% · 298 games
TinyZayac
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
45% · 148 games40% · 30 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Game 2prediction missed25:19
Tundra Esports 49%Team Secret 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenNine
25% · 4 games54% · 99 games
MorphlingNisha
Morphling
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
46% · 68 games41% · 70 games
LeshracResolut1on
Leshrac
Visage
Visage33
52% · 92 games51% · 69 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Marci
MarciSaksa
51% · 178 games57% · 80 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
51% · 70 games46% · 94 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct41:22
Tundra Esports 51%Team Secret 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
68% · 96 games63% · 60 games
Naga SirenCrystallis
Naga Siren
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
52% · 156 games42% · 440 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNine
46% · 256 games49% · 170 games
LeshracResolut1on
Leshrac
Tiny
TinySaksa
52% · 394 games40% · 68 games
SilencerPuppey
Silencer
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
50% · 152 games44% · 316 games
MarciZayac
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 50%
Series resultTundra Esports 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3