?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 30 games
53%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 22 games
73%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 20 games
65%

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Moon · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1010 picks · 712 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
621 picks · 456 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
585 picks · 441 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
554 picks · 892 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 388 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
511 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1195 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1099 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:18
Tundra Esports 79%Team SMG 21%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
60% · 127 games43% · 228 games
Ember SpiritMoon
Ember Spirit
Medusa
Medusa33
56% · 83 games47% · 76 games
SlarkMidOne
Slark
Pangolier
PangolierNine
52% · 380 games46% · 283 games
RubickPoloson
Rubick
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
52% · 32 games46% · 68 games
GrimstrokeAhFu
Grimstroke
Venomancer
VenomancerSneyking
51% · 33 games
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Tundra Esports 78%Team SMG 22%
The model gave 78% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
54% · 66 games48% · 147 games
DoomMidOne
Doom
Alchemist
AlchemistNine
47% · 44 games48% · 43 games
KunkkaMoon
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
48% · 33 games39% · 14 games
Shadow DemonAhFu
Shadow Demon
Venomancer
VenomancerSneyking
57% · 25 games54% · 21 game
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
Ancient Apparition
Slark
SlarkSaksa
55% · 57 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 91%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2